Meeting Report
The eighth plenary of the Northeast Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD)
met 11–12 November 1998 in Moscow to discuss nuclear testing in South
Asia, the Asian financial crisis, and the unannounced missile/satellite launch by the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
The DPRK launch generated animated discussion about theater and ballistic
missile defense (BMD) systems. Much controversy centers on the question of
whether missile defense systems are purely defensive in nature.
Proponents assert that theater missile defense deters the threat of
missile attack and thus increases security. Opponents counter that such
defense systems are destabilizing, because they may provide a first-strike
capability upon deployment, are prohibitively expensive and therefore
unavailable to all parties, or are technically impractical.
The five delegations (China, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia,
United States) each made presentations, and separate sessions were held on
the role of NEACD in the Asian security architecture, confidence building
on the Korean Peninsula, the security significance of the Asian financial
crisis, IGCC's Wired for Peace project, and Defense Information
Sharing (DIS).
Scholars from the United States, China, and Japan gave papers on the
evolution of security multilateralism in the region that clarified NEACD's
role in regional security architecture. Discussants emphasized that DPRK
participation was a necessary condition for any regional multilateral
institution to successfully manage security issues. However, there is no
consensus on how best to encourage DPRK participation in multilateral
forums.
The session on confidence-building measures covered the ongoing four-party
talks (China, the Koreas, and the United States) that aim to replace the
Korean War Armistice with a peace treaty, recent developments within the
Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO), and policy
changes since the election of President Kim Dae Jung in South Korea. Since
Kimís inauguration in February 1998, Seoul has separated economics from
politics in its relations with the North, and has encouraged other
countries to improve relations with Pyongyang. This policy reversal has
attracted South-to-North investment and spawned joint venture projects
with the hope of giving Pyongyang a stake in regional stability.
IGCC Director Stephan Haggard and Professor Ding Kuisong gave
presentations on the security significance of the Asian financial crisis.
Its severity has led to lower national defense budgets, which may be
interpreted as having reduced arms race threats. In the short term,
countries have been more domestically concerned with restoring financial
stability than with military modernization. While in theory the crisis
could produce political upheaval and concomitant security uncertainties—including
in extreme cases deterioration in military command and control—it
fortunately has not approached this level in Northeast Asia. The consensus
was that the financial crisis has had little effect on regional security
dynamics.
Jennifer Pournelle of IGCC and Pamela Harris of Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratories made an on-line presentation of IGCC's Wired for Peace
project, designed to support the NEACD with an Internet-based infrastructure (Fall
1998 Newsletter sidebar). The Defense Information Sharing session
addressed issues of transparency, reviewed defense white papers, and
encouraged the Chinese and Russian defense ministries to produce their
own first versions. The next DIS meeting, addressing force modernization
and continuing missile defense discussion, will be held in fall 1999.
|
Japan
|
Mr. ARAKI Kiyoshi
Deputy Director General
Intelligence and
Analysis Bureau
Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Mr. HIRAMATSU Kenji
Director
National Security Policy Division
Foreign Policy Bureau
Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Mr. KAWAJIRI Toru
Deputy Director General
Bureau of Defense
Policy
Japan Defense Agency |
Mr. MORIMOTO Satoshi
Senior Researcher
Center for Policy
Research
Nomura Research Institute |
Mr. SHIOGUCHI Tetsuo
Senior Research Fellow
Institute for
International Policy Studies |
Colonel YAMAJI Eiichi
Deputy Director for Policies
The Joint
Staff Office
Japan Defense Agency |
People's Republic of China
|
Mr. CHENG Qizhen
Senior Research Fellow
China Institute of
International Studies |
Ambassador CHENG Ruisheng
Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Prof. DING Kuisong
Director
Division of North American Studies
China Institute of Contemporary Intl Relations |
Mr. MA Mingqiang
Asia Department
Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Colonel QIAN Lihua
Deputy Director
Foreign Affairs Bureau
Ministry of Defense |
Sr. Colonel ZHU Chenghu
Deputy Director
Institute for Strategic
Studies
National Defense University |
Republic of Korea
|
Professor AHN Byung-joon
Chair
Dept. of Political Science
Yonsei University |
Dr. CHOI Kang
Senior Director
Policy Planning and Coordination
National Security Council |
Mr. HAN Dong-Man
Deputy Director
Security Policy Division
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade |
Brig. General KIM Kook-hun
Deputy Director General
Arms Control
Office
Ministry of National Defense |
Professor LEE Seo-Hang
Director General
Security and
Unification Studies
Instit. of Foreign Affairs and National Security |
Mr. PARK Won-hwa
Director General
Policy Planning
Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and Trade |
Russia
|
Dr. Anatoly BOLYATKO
Director, Center for Asia-Pacific Studies
Institute of Far Eastern Studies
Russian Academy of Sciences |
Colonel Alexander GOURVICH
Division Chief
International Treaty
Directorate
General Staff of the Armed Forces |
Prof. Vassily MIKHEEV
Head Researcher
Institute of Far Eastern
Studies
Russian Academy of Sciences |
Dr. Konstantin O. SARKISOV
Visiting Professor
Hosei University
Tokyo, Japan |
Mr. Georgy TOLORAYA
Deputy Director
First Asia Department
Ministry of Foreign Affairs |
Lt. General Nickolai ZLENKO
Deputy Chief
Main Director
General
Staff of the Armed Forces |
United States
|
Mr. Ralph COSSA
Co-Director
US CSCAP
Director, Pacific Forum
CSIS |
Lt. Colonel Sak SAKODA
Senior Country Director, Japan
International Security Affairs/Asia-Pacific
Department of Defense |
Professor Robert SCALAPINO
Professor of Government Emeritus
Institute of East Asian Studies
University of California Berkeley |
Colonel James SIKES
Chief, Asia-Pacific Division
United States
Army
Joint Staff (J-5) |
Ms. Judith STROTZ
Deputy Director
Regional Affairs and Security
Policy
East Asian Bureau, Department of State |
Lt. Colonel Curt YOUNG
Politico-Military Officer
U.S. Arms
Control and Disarmament Agency
Department of State |
Presenters
|
Ms. FUKUSHIMA Akiko
Senior Researcher
International Cooperation
Department
National Institute for Research Advancement
Tokyo, Japan |
Mr. YANG Mingjie
Deputy Director
Comprehensive Division
China
Institute of Contemporary Intl Relations
Beijing, China |
Sponsoring Organizations
|
Dr. Edward T. FEI
Deputy Director for Policy
Division of Policy
and Technical Analysis
Department of Energy
Washingtonl, DC, United
States |
Professor Stephan HAGGARD
Research Director
Institute on Global
Conflict and Cooperation
University of California
La Jolla, CA, United States |
Ms. Pam HARRIS
Center for Global Research
Fission Energy
Systems Safety Program
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Livermore,
CA, United States |
Mr. KAMIYAMA Takeshi
Director of Research Coordination
Japan
Institute of International Affairs (JIIA)
Tokyo, Japan |
Mr. Gregory KARASIN
Deputy Foreign Minister
Russian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs
Moscow, Russia |
Ms. Tamara KARGANOVA
Vice Chief
Dept. for International
Cooperation
Institute of Far Eastern Studies
Russian Academy of
Sciences
Moscow, Russia |
Mr.Vladimir OBORONKO
Institute on Global Conflict and
Cooperation
University of California
La Jolla, CA, United States |
Ms. Jennifer POURNELLE
Managing Editor
Institute on Global
Conflict and CooperatioN
University of California
La Jolla, CA, United
States |
Mr. Michael STANKIEWICZ
Policy Researcher for Asia
Institute on
Global Conflict and Cooperation
University of California
La Jolla,
CA, United States |
Dr. Mikhail TITARENKO
Director
Institute of Far Eastern
Studies
Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, Russia |
Observers
|
Mr. Alexander AZIZOV
Section Director
First Asia Department
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Moscow, Russia |
Mr. Vladimir SHIN
Attaché
First Asia Department
Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Moscow, Russia
|
